Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.265520 1.334756 1.406638 1.487011 1.574578 1.667322 1.773279
2025-12-21 1.152699 1.249399 1.354104 1.476553 1.616660 1.772983 1.962026
2025-12-28 1.094170 1.208675 1.336384 1.490659 1.673725 1.886288 2.155189
2026-01-04 1.035885 1.160714 1.303099 1.479468 1.694853 1.953129 2.292313
2026-01-11 1.002216 1.137415 1.294783 1.494247 1.744457 2.053846 2.475266
2026-01-18 0.967227 1.109506 1.277971 1.495741 1.775358 2.130633 2.630827
2026-01-25 0.948990 1.100107 1.282089 1.522023 1.837504 2.249799 2.850976
2026-02-01 0.907639 1.059922 1.245497 1.493617 1.825471 2.268164 2.930707
2026-02-08 0.864712 1.015802 1.201704 1.453123 1.794161 2.256987 2.965163
2026-02-15 0.837404 0.990125 1.180033 1.440144 1.798568 2.294521 3.072897
2026-02-22 0.818062 0.973671 1.169273 1.440709 1.820922 2.357905 3.223948
2026-03-01 0.793497 0.949503 1.147333 1.424816 1.818802 2.384849 3.319143
2026-03-08 0.763077 0.917524 1.114943 1.394564 1.796564 2.383380 3.373302
2026-03-15 0.742457 0.897750 1.098099 1.385135 1.803917 2.426960 3.506171
2026-03-22 0.731614 0.890364 1.097375 1.397931 1.844098 2.523074 3.737521
2026-03-29 0.713204 0.872196 1.081212 1.387780 1.848984 2.563352 3.874105
2026-04-05 0.704240 0.866341 1.081559 1.401185 1.890050 2.664216 4.131697
2026-04-12 0.691705 0.855175 1.074032 1.402540 1.912189 2.735004 4.340496
2026-04-19 0.687320 0.854923 1.081615 1.426364 1.970745 2.871256 4.694911
2026-04-26 0.667208 0.832384 1.056920 1.400615 1.948149 2.865078 4.757864
2026-05-03 0.644537 0.805763 1.025694 1.363865 1.905941 2.821618 4.737716
2026-05-10 0.630684 0.791099 1.011173 1.352076 1.904117 2.850090 4.875245
2026-05-17 0.621246 0.782352 1.004866 1.352589 1.922563 2.916315 5.104086